THEY RATE THE EXPERTS - If you're like me and you play fantasy football, you've probably read columns by fantasy football experts in your research before setting your lineup. ESPN has many of them, and I consume them weekly. But have you ever wondered if these guys are actually that good at ranking players each week? For as funny as Matthew Berry is (and I actually think he's very funny, I download and listen to his podcast often), does he actually give me good fantasy football advice?
That's where the website Fantasy Pros comes in. Their site ranks the experts for me! Fantasy Pros is tracking 59 of the most popular fantasy football experts this year, and they rate them using a well-executed Accuracy formula. I was blown away by the research available on the site, and they've added even more features this year. I highly recommend this website to anyone who is looking to get an extra edge in their league, it's excellent.
Here are some things I learned from the site...
THE TALENTED MR. ROTO IS STRUGGLING THIS YEAR - Matthew Berry is the #37 most accurate expert of 2011 to date. This means that if I had used his rankings every week, I'd be at a disadvantage because three dozen other experts were dishing out better knowledge. Berry ranked #22 overall in 2010. Again, this is not intended to be a jab at Berry, he's simply the most well-known (likely has the most readers) and many people probably listen to his advice. So who should we be listening to?
LISTEN TO THESE GUYS... Studying the numbers from the past two years, it looks like we should be listening to John Paulsen, The Fantasy Shrink. He was ranked the #1 most accurate expert in 2010 and he's back up at #3 this year. Those that have listened exclusively to his advice when setting their weekly lineup the past 2 years have been rewarded handsomely in their match-ups, and if everyone else is listening to ESPN, he could (and probably will) give you a sizable advantage!
Josh Moore, of 4for4.com, also gives out consistently excellent advice. He ranked #4 overall in 2010 and is #5 this year. That guy knows what he's talking about. If I use his rankings to help me decide who to start and sit, I'm going to come out ahead. Pat Fitzmaurice, of Pro Football Weekly, is the #1 most accurate expert so far this year, and he ranked #11 last year. I will take his advice more often, also.
YAHOO vs. ESPN - These are two of the most popular fantasy football league-hosting sites, so it's only natural to compare them. I currently play in two leagues, both hosted on ESPN. I don't currently play in any leagues hosted by Yahoo. Therefore, I definitely see the ESPN columnists and their rankings and analysis on a more regular basis than I see the Yahoo content. There have been times when I've taken ESPN's advice on who to start or sit in a given week (if I'm too wishy-washy to make up my own mind. Arrgh, the decisions!).
In retrospect, I would have been better off taking advice from the Yahoo staff. The Yahoo staff composite rankings (comprised of Brandon Funston, Andy Behrens, Brad Evans, and Scott Pianowski) are the #7 most accurate ranker of 2011 so far. In fact, Pianowski's individual rankings are #2!
Meanwhile, the ESPN staff composite (featuring Matthew Berry, Eric Karabell, Chris Harris, and Tristan Cockroft) ranks #25 this year. The highest-ranked ESPN expert is Karabell at #11. I will definitely keep this in mind when I set my weekly lineup from now on!
To be fair, ESPN ranked #7 overall in 2010 while Yahoo ranked #8. But in 2011, it hasn't been close... Yahoo is giving better advice.
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* All the numbers I refer to in this post are courtesy of Fantasy Pros and are good through the first 7 weeks of 2011.
That's where the website Fantasy Pros comes in. Their site ranks the experts for me! Fantasy Pros is tracking 59 of the most popular fantasy football experts this year, and they rate them using a well-executed Accuracy formula. I was blown away by the research available on the site, and they've added even more features this year. I highly recommend this website to anyone who is looking to get an extra edge in their league, it's excellent.
Here are some things I learned from the site...
THE TALENTED MR. ROTO IS STRUGGLING THIS YEAR - Matthew Berry is the #37 most accurate expert of 2011 to date. This means that if I had used his rankings every week, I'd be at a disadvantage because three dozen other experts were dishing out better knowledge. Berry ranked #22 overall in 2010. Again, this is not intended to be a jab at Berry, he's simply the most well-known (likely has the most readers) and many people probably listen to his advice. So who should we be listening to?
LISTEN TO THESE GUYS... Studying the numbers from the past two years, it looks like we should be listening to John Paulsen, The Fantasy Shrink. He was ranked the #1 most accurate expert in 2010 and he's back up at #3 this year. Those that have listened exclusively to his advice when setting their weekly lineup the past 2 years have been rewarded handsomely in their match-ups, and if everyone else is listening to ESPN, he could (and probably will) give you a sizable advantage!
Josh Moore, of 4for4.com, also gives out consistently excellent advice. He ranked #4 overall in 2010 and is #5 this year. That guy knows what he's talking about. If I use his rankings to help me decide who to start and sit, I'm going to come out ahead. Pat Fitzmaurice, of Pro Football Weekly, is the #1 most accurate expert so far this year, and he ranked #11 last year. I will take his advice more often, also.
YAHOO vs. ESPN - These are two of the most popular fantasy football league-hosting sites, so it's only natural to compare them. I currently play in two leagues, both hosted on ESPN. I don't currently play in any leagues hosted by Yahoo. Therefore, I definitely see the ESPN columnists and their rankings and analysis on a more regular basis than I see the Yahoo content. There have been times when I've taken ESPN's advice on who to start or sit in a given week (if I'm too wishy-washy to make up my own mind. Arrgh, the decisions!).
In retrospect, I would have been better off taking advice from the Yahoo staff. The Yahoo staff composite rankings (comprised of Brandon Funston, Andy Behrens, Brad Evans, and Scott Pianowski) are the #7 most accurate ranker of 2011 so far. In fact, Pianowski's individual rankings are #2!
Meanwhile, the ESPN staff composite (featuring Matthew Berry, Eric Karabell, Chris Harris, and Tristan Cockroft) ranks #25 this year. The highest-ranked ESPN expert is Karabell at #11. I will definitely keep this in mind when I set my weekly lineup from now on!
To be fair, ESPN ranked #7 overall in 2010 while Yahoo ranked #8. But in 2011, it hasn't been close... Yahoo is giving better advice.
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* All the numbers I refer to in this post are courtesy of Fantasy Pros and are good through the first 7 weeks of 2011.
So how did they finish? Here's a quick glance at the 2011 year-end football expert rankings from FantasyPros.com...
ReplyDeleteTop 5 Experts:
1. Scott Pianowski - Yahoo
2. John Paulsen - The Fantasy Shrink
3. Kevin Hanson - EDSFootball
4. Josh Moore - 4for4.com
5. Sablich Brothers - The New York Times
Notables:
7. Yahoo - Staff Composite
12. ESPN - Staff Composite
25. NFL.com - Staff Composite
29. SI.com - Staff Composite
32. CBS Sports - Site Projections
59. AccuScore - Site Projections
11. Pat Fitzmaurice - ProFootballWeekly - Most Accurate Expert of 2010.
20. Tristan Cockroft - ESPN
23. Christopher Harris - ESPN
26. Andy Behrens - Yahoo
33. Brad Evans - Yahoo
34. Eric Karabell - ESPN
38. Matthew Berry - ESPN
Final Thoughts:
- The Yahoo experts ended the year as the most accurate group, congrats to those that took their advice this year! Next season, I plan to listen to guys like Scott Pianowski, Josh Moore, John Paulsen, and Pat Fitzmaurice almost exclusively. They've ranked very high in accuracy over the past couple years and have proven they know what they're talking about.
Make sure you visit FantasyPros.com, the site is amazing and they've added stuff for the 2012 baseball season, also!